OFHEO.gov (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) is an invaluable resource to anybody and everybody involved in real estate.  Not only should agents, appraisers, and mortgage lenders be familiar with OFHEO and its mission, but homeowners and those hoping to someday be homeowners should be in the know about the great data OFHEO.gov provides.

According to the OFHEO.gov website, OFHEO’s mission is:

…to promote housing and a strong national housing finance system by ensuring the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association)  and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation).  OFHEO works to ensure the capital adequacy and financial safety and soundness of two housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the nation’s largest housing finance institutions.

One of the ancillary services OFHEO provides is monthly, quarterly, and annual tracking of appreciation rates, known formally as the House Price Index, with appreciation (or depreciation) rates broken down by national, state, major metropolitan areas.  I personally make a point to visit OFHEO.gov at least once a quarter to download the latest report.  The most recent report available to the public is the Quarter 4, 2008 report, released last week on February 24th, 2009.  In it I found, as usual, some interesting facts about housing price trends.

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• Nationwide, house prices fell by 3.4% in the 4th quarter and fell by 8.2% for the previous full year
• This is the 6th straight quarter (18 months) of nationwide price declines, coinciding with the actual start of the recession in the fall of 2007, see chart below.
• Iowa ranks 8th best among the states with a slight decline of .64% for the 4th quarter and decline of .95% for the year.
• Illinois ranks as the 32nd “best” state with a quarterly decline of 3.03% and an annual decline of 5.75%
• The three worst states, no surprise, were Florida, California, and Nevada with respective annual declines of 23.86%, 25.52%, and 28.24%.  Sorry, Mr. DiCaprio, your $8.9 million-dollar mansion is now only worth a paltry $6.6 Million
• 44 of the 50 states saw annual declines for the previous year, see chart above.

Click to Enlarge

Sounds and looks pretty grim, right? Well, in good old Dubuque Iowa we haven’t been doing all too bad.  In fact, we actually saw in increase in prices for both the 4th Quarter (up .04%)  and the annual figure (up .57%).  Granted, these aren’t exactly big gains by any means, but at least we’re holding mostly steady against the national trends.  You’re not getting mea-rich owning real estate, at least not right now.  If, for example, you bought a home for $150,000 on December 31st, 2007, that same home “should” have been worth about $150,900 at the end of 2008.

At least we’re not Merced, CA, - they had a one-year decline of 49.5% – truly amazing.

 You can access the full OFHEO.gov report here. 

As always, I encourage your questions or comments via the comments function available in every post.

Today at approximately 1:30PM CST on Tuesday, the President signed the latest economic stimulus bill into law.  Now, we can all argue into the wee hours about whether this latest attempt to kick-start the economy is a good idea, but, at the end of the day, it’s  still the law. 

In addition to being limited to first-time home buyers, the tax credit:

• Is equal to 10% of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.
• Is available for homes purchased on or after Jan. 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
• Does not have to be repaid.
• Has income limits of $75,000 for single taxpayers and $150,000 for married couples.

I happen to be a member of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and they have been doing a great job keeping the public updated as to the housing provisions in the stimulus bill.  Click the image below to view NAHB Tax Credit website.

It’s been a couple of weeks since the last time I posted an update about the recent trends in Iowa mortgage rates.  This week I posted both the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages.  Notice that while the 15-year and 30 year rates seem to follow each other up and down the rate scale, they aren’t necessarily tied together.  See the size-able dip 15-year notes took towards the end of January while 30-year rates continued a slow, steady climb in that same time frame.

Graph courtesy of BankRate.com

Of course, these are averages for 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages.  Local rates can, and do, vary on not only a daily, but frequently an hourly basis.  Check with your favorite local banks or credit unions to get local rate quotes. 

If you haven’t already been working with a bank or credit union or even a mortgage broker, I do have access to in in-house mortgage lender at Ruhl & Ruhl with 1862 Mortgage.  1862′s local rep, Ashley Schrempf would be more than happy to quote you current rates as well as pre-qualify you if you may be in the market for a home loan in the near futute.

Since I was toying around on MSNBC’s site, I also found this completely unrelated video about how getting enough sleep will help you lose weight. I, like a lot of folks, could stand to take off a few, and if getting more sleep is the key, cound me in!  I’ll be sleepy-sleep time by 8:30 tonight!

Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis (February 5th, 2009)

We’ve got increases this week in both the total number of listings (410) as well as the number of homes having gone under contract (82), reflecting the increased activity in Dubuque’s real estate market.  Folks are seeing signs of spring around the corner and activity is definitely on the rise.

I’d like to explain the Supply of Homes figure below.  Supply of Homes simply tells us whether we are currently in a “buyer’s market” or a “seller’s market”.  If there is more than a six month supply of available homes, that is known as a buyer’s market, meaning there are more homes in supply than buyers actively searching for homes to purchase.  Conversely, if we have less than a six month supply of homes that would be known as a seller’s market – more buyers in the market than available homes to purchase.

How do we figure the number? Easy.  The local Dubuque market sold 718 homes in the last full year, a rate of 59.8 sales per month.  The current amount of available homes is 328 homes.  We divide the number of availalbe homes (328) by the rate of sales per month (59.8) to reach a figure of  5.5 month supply of homes, meaning that, at current market activity levels, it would take the current supply of homes 5.5 months to sell out of the market.  If there were 428 homes available for sale today that would bring our supply figure up to a 7.2 month supply of homes, solidly a buyer’s market. 

The numbers do change on a daily basis - it’s always very intersting to watch the trends over time.  This winter we hit as low as a 5.2 month supply of homes, while only as recently as August ’08 we had a 7.0 month supply of homes in Dubuque’s market.

Current Total Listings: 410 ( + 21 )

Active/Available Listings: 328 ( + 3 )

Pending Sold Listings: 82 ( + 18 )  or 20.0 % of Current Market  ( +3.5% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 718  ( +4 ) or 59.8 Homes Sold per month ( + 0.3 )

Supply of Homes (months): 5.5 Month Supply ( n/c ) or 18.2% per month ( – 0.7% )

Rolling Twelve Month Dubuque Sales Posted

Past One Year: 718 Sales ($147,896 avg. – avg. down 2.2% from previous yr.)

Two Years Past: 914 Sales ($151,151 avg. - avg. up 4.0% from previous yr.)

Three Years Past: 1030 Sales ($145,400 avg. – avg. up 3.9% from previous yr.)

Four Years Past: 936 Sales ($139,942 avg. – avg. up 9.5% from previous yr.)

Five Years Past: 918 Sales ($127,773 avg. sale price)

Now that the dust is settling on the announcement of IBM’s project in Dubuque (see previous posts here, here, here, & here), I thought I’d write a follow up about the impacts I’m already seeing.  I’ve noticed decided changes in behavior by both our buyers & sellers in just the last week and a half. 

Buyers who have been already in the market for some time, or those thinking about jumping in, are stepping a little faster these days.  They see the incoming IBM workers, managers, and executives as a reason to hurry up and make a purchase decision, especially with still-historically-low interest rates available. 

Private showings and open houses are definitely seeing more traffic.  In fact, one of my open houses on Sunday at 2791 Oak Crest saw a headcount of approximately 25 visitors in an hour and a half.  Our other open at 9043 Olde Davenport Road saw more visitors than in either of the previous open houses despite the day’s temperature hovering just above zero degrees.

For our sellers, I’m also seeing changes in behavior.  Creating up to 1,300 now positions in a community will clearly impact the local housing market.  Knowing these workers will be here in the upcoming months is changing sellers attitudes about their prospects for sale.  Some Dubuque homebuilders have actually raised their listing prices on their spec (speculative) listings. 

As a personal note, I was involved in a number of negotiations last week that demonstrated our sellers’ new resolve.  In each case, the sellers were not as accommodating in negotiations as they had been even a few weeks ago (pre-IBM).  That’s not to say sellers are demanding full list prices, but buyers should be aware that counter-offers will not be as generous as they have been in the last year or more.

Over the last year, MLS stats show that, on average, the greater Dubuque market gives up in negotiation 3.3% off the current listing price.  In real terms, a home listed for $200,000, based on Dubuque averages, would expect to sell for approximately $193,400.  Going forward, I expect that 3.3% figure to shrink as demand for housing strains the current available supply.

As with any post, your comments and questions are encouraged…