Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis – March 25th, 2009

This week’s Dubuque Real Estate market shows a gain in available inventory, though we didn’t categorically gain in the overall listed number of homes – we did have a sizeable jump in the number of listings available (up fourteen) as our pending sales numbers have dropped by a nearly equal amount (down sixteen). 

The National Association of Realtors stresses the pending sales total as a measure of how the current market is doing.  I personally would have expected the local pending sales total to higher at this point in the year. Perhaps our lingering winter and early spring weather is dampening further sales.  A further analysis shows that the price range having the most difficulty is those homes listed OVER $200,000.  While homes priced over $200K account for 42% of all available listings, that same price range accounts for only 17% of pending home sales.

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Current Market Listings Status & Supply Figures

Current Total Listings: 418 ( - 2 )

Active/Available Listings: 350 ( + 14 )

 Pending Sold Listings: 68 ( - 16 )  or 16.3 % of Current Market  ( - 3.7% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 737  ( + 13 ) or 61.4 Homes Sold per month ( + 1.1 )

Supply of Homes: 5.7 Month Supply ( + 0.1 ) 

Percentage Selling Per Month: 17.5% ( - 0.5% ) 

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Rolling Twelve Months Total Sales & Averages

This Year: 737 Sales ($146,847 avg. – avg. down 2.9% from previous yr.)

One Year Ago: 880 Sales ($151,279 avg. - avg. up 3.4% from previous yr.)

 Two Years Ago: 1003 Sales ($146,362 avg. – avg. up 4.5% from previous yr.)

Three Years Ago: 959 Sales ($140,126 avg. – avg. up 7.6% from previous yr.)

Four Years Ago: 914 Sales ($130,176 avg. sale price) 

As with all RiverBankstoCornFields.com posts, your comments and questions are encouraged and welcomed below…

Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis – March 8th, 2009

Current Total Listings: 410 ( no change )

Active/Available Listings: 325 ( + 2 )

 Pending Sold Listings: 85 ( - 2 )  or 20.7 % of Current Market  ( - 0.5% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 725  ( - 2 ) or 60.4 Homes Sold per month ( - 0.2 )

Supply of Homes: 5.4 Month Supply ( + 0.1 ) 

Percentage Selling Per Month: 18.8% ( - 0.1% ) 

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This Year: 725 Sales ($146,310 avg. – avg. down 2.9% from previous yr.)

One Year Ago: 892 Sales ($150,627 avg. - avg. up 2.8% from previous yr.)

 Two Years Ago: 1016 Sales ($146,585 avg. – avg. up 5.3% from previous yr.)

Three Years Ago: 963 Sales ($139,219 avg. – avg. up 7.4% from previous yr.)

Four Years Ago: 897 Sales ($129,615 avg. sale price)

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OFHEO.gov (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) is an invaluable resource to anybody and everybody involved in real estate.  Not only should agents, appraisers, and mortgage lenders be familiar with OFHEO and its mission, but homeowners and those hoping to someday be homeowners should be in the know about the great data OFHEO.gov provides.

According to the OFHEO.gov website, OFHEO’s mission is:

…to promote housing and a strong national housing finance system by ensuring the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association)  and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation).  OFHEO works to ensure the capital adequacy and financial safety and soundness of two housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the nation’s largest housing finance institutions.

One of the ancillary services OFHEO provides is monthly, quarterly, and annual tracking of appreciation rates, known formally as the House Price Index, with appreciation (or depreciation) rates broken down by national, state, major metropolitan areas.  I personally make a point to visit OFHEO.gov at least once a quarter to download the latest report.  The most recent report available to the public is the Quarter 4, 2008 report, released last week on February 24th, 2009.  In it I found, as usual, some interesting facts about housing price trends.

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• Nationwide, house prices fell by 3.4% in the 4th quarter and fell by 8.2% for the previous full year
• This is the 6th straight quarter (18 months) of nationwide price declines, coinciding with the actual start of the recession in the fall of 2007, see chart below.
• Iowa ranks 8th best among the states with a slight decline of .64% for the 4th quarter and decline of .95% for the year.
• Illinois ranks as the 32nd “best” state with a quarterly decline of 3.03% and an annual decline of 5.75%
• The three worst states, no surprise, were Florida, California, and Nevada with respective annual declines of 23.86%, 25.52%, and 28.24%.  Sorry, Mr. DiCaprio, your $8.9 million-dollar mansion is now only worth a paltry $6.6 Million
• 44 of the 50 states saw annual declines for the previous year, see chart above.

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Sounds and looks pretty grim, right? Well, in good old Dubuque Iowa we haven’t been doing all too bad.  In fact, we actually saw in increase in prices for both the 4th Quarter (up .04%)  and the annual figure (up .57%).  Granted, these aren’t exactly big gains by any means, but at least we’re holding mostly steady against the national trends.  You’re not getting mea-rich owning real estate, at least not right now.  If, for example, you bought a home for $150,000 on December 31st, 2007, that same home “should” have been worth about $150,900 at the end of 2008.

At least we’re not Merced, CA, - they had a one-year decline of 49.5% – truly amazing.

 You can access the full OFHEO.gov report here. 

As always, I encourage your questions or comments via the comments function available in every post.

Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis – February 22nd, 2009

This week’s analysis of the current Dubuque real estate market shows a slight contraction in overall inventory, down in both Total Listings and Available Listings.  This brings our current supply of homes down to A 5.3 month supply of available homes.  As you may have noticed in the previous Dubuque MLS Week in Review we posted a few more sales this last week than previous weeks.  Though, do take note, the average sales prices are skewing to the lower side of the price scale, rolling back our current twelve month average sales price to $146,378.

Current Total Listings: 409 ( - 9 )

Active/Available Listings: 318 ( - 6 )

Pending Sold Listings: 91 ( - 1 )  or 22.2 % of Current Market  ( +0.2% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 721  ( + 3 ) or 60.1 Homes Sold per month ( + 0.3 )

Supply of Homes: 5.3 Month Supply ( – 0.1 ) 

Percentage Selling Per Month: 18.9% ( + 0.5% )

 Past One Year: 721 Sales ($146,378 avg. – avg. down 3.0% from previous yr.)

Two Years Past: 907 Sales ($150,929 avg. - avg. up 3.7% from previous yr.)

Three Years Past: 1019 Sales ($145,604 avg. – avg. up 4.2% from previous yr.)

Four Years Past: 956 Sales ($139,787 avg. – avg. up 8.6% from previous yr.)

Five Years Past: 905 Sales ($128,758 avg. sale price)

Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis (February 12th, 2009)

     Quick analysis of the numbers this week shows a slight increase, again, in our overall listed inventory.  However, that entire increase amount, plus two other listings, went under contract this week, leaving less actual inventory available for those buyers still out on the prowl.

     A nice reverse trend I’ve noticed is how our current rolling 12 month rolling record of sales has actually gained ground against the previous 12 months.  The Dubuque market had consistantly over the last two months or so had been trailing by over 200 homes sold against the prior 12 months. Now we’re down to all of 190 sales short of the prior year.  Not exactly a harbinger of a complete turnaround, but the trend is going in the right direction.

Current Total Listings: 418 ( + 8 )

Active/Available Listings: 326 ( - 2 )

Pending Sold Listings: 92 ( + 10 )  or 22.0 % of Current Market  ( +2.0% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 718  ( n/c ) or 59.8 Homes Sold per month ( n/c )

Supply of Homes (months): 5.4 Month Supply ( – 0.1 ) or 18.4% per month ( + 0.2% )

Past One Year: 718 Sales ($147,573 avg. – avg. down 2.1% from previous yr.)

Two Years Past: 908 Sales ($150,741 avg. - avg. up 3.2% from previous yr.)

Three Years Past: 1029 Sales ($146,124 avg. – avg. up 4.9% from previous yr.)

Four Years Past: 944 Sales ($139,271 avg. – avg. up 8.7% from previous yr.)

Five Years Past: 911 Sales ($128,097 avg. sale price)

As always, I encourage your comments and questions about Dubuque real estate, join in the conversation in the comments section below…

Dubuque Real Estate Market Analysis (February 5th, 2009)

We’ve got increases this week in both the total number of listings (410) as well as the number of homes having gone under contract (82), reflecting the increased activity in Dubuque’s real estate market.  Folks are seeing signs of spring around the corner and activity is definitely on the rise.

I’d like to explain the Supply of Homes figure below.  Supply of Homes simply tells us whether we are currently in a “buyer’s market” or a “seller’s market”.  If there is more than a six month supply of available homes, that is known as a buyer’s market, meaning there are more homes in supply than buyers actively searching for homes to purchase.  Conversely, if we have less than a six month supply of homes that would be known as a seller’s market – more buyers in the market than available homes to purchase.

How do we figure the number? Easy.  The local Dubuque market sold 718 homes in the last full year, a rate of 59.8 sales per month.  The current amount of available homes is 328 homes.  We divide the number of availalbe homes (328) by the rate of sales per month (59.8) to reach a figure of  5.5 month supply of homes, meaning that, at current market activity levels, it would take the current supply of homes 5.5 months to sell out of the market.  If there were 428 homes available for sale today that would bring our supply figure up to a 7.2 month supply of homes, solidly a buyer’s market. 

The numbers do change on a daily basis - it’s always very intersting to watch the trends over time.  This winter we hit as low as a 5.2 month supply of homes, while only as recently as August ’08 we had a 7.0 month supply of homes in Dubuque’s market.

Current Total Listings: 410 ( + 21 )

Active/Available Listings: 328 ( + 3 )

Pending Sold Listings: 82 ( + 18 )  or 20.0 % of Current Market  ( +3.5% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 718  ( +4 ) or 59.8 Homes Sold per month ( + 0.3 )

Supply of Homes (months): 5.5 Month Supply ( n/c ) or 18.2% per month ( – 0.7% )

Rolling Twelve Month Dubuque Sales Posted

Past One Year: 718 Sales ($147,896 avg. – avg. down 2.2% from previous yr.)

Two Years Past: 914 Sales ($151,151 avg. - avg. up 4.0% from previous yr.)

Three Years Past: 1030 Sales ($145,400 avg. – avg. up 3.9% from previous yr.)

Four Years Past: 936 Sales ($139,942 avg. – avg. up 9.5% from previous yr.)

Five Years Past: 918 Sales ($127,773 avg. sale price)

With all the IBM talk locally and the dour economic news nationally, it can be hard to guess which way local housing prices will go.  Take a second to answer this poll and we’ll see what readers of River Banks to Corn Fields think… 

[poll id="2"]

 As with any post, your comments and questions are encouraged…

UPDATE (2/5/09 @ 1:00PM CST) The poll is now closed and it seems the consensus is that the Dubuque market will stay about the same, with a couple folks believing will go up slightly, and a few believing it will fall back slightly.

Personally, I’m in the Up a Bit column.  The IBM thing is great and will definitely impact the local market, but the drag being felt by national economic conditions will hold us back a little further that we normally could expect with a project as big as IBM coming to Dubuque.

Now that the dust is settling on the announcement of IBM’s project in Dubuque (see previous posts here, here, here, & here), I thought I’d write a follow up about the impacts I’m already seeing.  I’ve noticed decided changes in behavior by both our buyers & sellers in just the last week and a half. 

Buyers who have been already in the market for some time, or those thinking about jumping in, are stepping a little faster these days.  They see the incoming IBM workers, managers, and executives as a reason to hurry up and make a purchase decision, especially with still-historically-low interest rates available. 

Private showings and open houses are definitely seeing more traffic.  In fact, one of my open houses on Sunday at 2791 Oak Crest saw a headcount of approximately 25 visitors in an hour and a half.  Our other open at 9043 Olde Davenport Road saw more visitors than in either of the previous open houses despite the day’s temperature hovering just above zero degrees.

For our sellers, I’m also seeing changes in behavior.  Creating up to 1,300 now positions in a community will clearly impact the local housing market.  Knowing these workers will be here in the upcoming months is changing sellers attitudes about their prospects for sale.  Some Dubuque homebuilders have actually raised their listing prices on their spec (speculative) listings. 

As a personal note, I was involved in a number of negotiations last week that demonstrated our sellers’ new resolve.  In each case, the sellers were not as accommodating in negotiations as they had been even a few weeks ago (pre-IBM).  That’s not to say sellers are demanding full list prices, but buyers should be aware that counter-offers will not be as generous as they have been in the last year or more.

Over the last year, MLS stats show that, on average, the greater Dubuque market gives up in negotiation 3.3% off the current listing price.  In real terms, a home listed for $200,000, based on Dubuque averages, would expect to sell for approximately $193,400.  Going forward, I expect that 3.3% figure to shrink as demand for housing strains the current available supply.

As with any post, your comments and questions are encouraged…

Dubuque Market Inventory Analysis (January 25th, 2009)

Current Total Listings: 389 ( + 16 )

Active/Available Listings: 325 ( + 7 )

Pending Sold Listings: 64 ( + 9 )  or 16.5 % of Current Market  ( + 1.8% )

Dubuque Area Sales Previous 12 Months: 714  ( – 7 ) or 59.5 Homes Sold per month ( – 0.6 )

Supply of Homes (months): 5.5 Month Supply ( + .2) or 18.9% per month ( no change )

Twelve Month Dubuque Sales Posted

Past One Year: 714 Sales ($148,084 avg. – Down 2.1% from previous)

Two Years Past: 925 Sales ($151,336 avg. - Up 4.0% from previous)

Three Years Past: 1023 Sales ($145,502 avg. – Up 4.0% from previous)

Four Years Past: 929 Sales ($139,922 avg. – Up 10.0% from previous)

Five Years Past: 918 Sales ($127,154 avg.)

As with any post, your comments and questions are encouraged…